Research notes

Constellation Software (CSU) acquires, manages and builds industry specific software businesses aka Vertical Market Software (VMS) companies. Uniquely they are perpetual owners of all their businesses. CSU has six operating groups: Volaris, Harris, Jonas, Vela Software, Perseus Group and Topicus, which service customers in over 100 markets worldwide. Each operating group serves as a holding company for dozens of underlying software companies. The company is headquartered in Toronto, Canada, and has offices in North America, Europe, Australia, South America and Africa.

NVIDIA Corporation is an American semiconductor company and a global manufacturer of high-end graphics processing units (GPUs). The company is based in California and has five operating segments: (1) Data Center, (2) Gaming, (3) Professional Visualisation, (4) Automotive, and (5) Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM). As the engine of Artificial Intelligence (AI), NVIDIA is committed to accelerating the growth of generative AI, by recognising it as a new computing platform, like the PC, internet and mobile-cloud.

NGI has acquired Georgian, a Toronto-based AI-focused growth equity firm. This deal appears to be a strategic fit for NGI, meeting its flagged acquisition criteria and being earnings accretive. We forecast NGI FY26F/FY27F/FY28F EPS to increase by ~1%-3% following the transaction. However, our target price reduces to A$2.98 (from A$3.35), reflecting a meaningful contraction in global peer trading multiples and our application of a more conservative valuation multiple to NGI (12.5x PE versus 15x previously). NGI's recent sell-off appears to be mainly tied to Private Credit concerns around its key strategic partner Blue Owl. We think NGI's fundamentals are largely unchanged, and current market volatility is arguably conducive to its stable of alternative asset fund managers. We rate NGI a Buy.

Global Business Travel Group (AMEX GBT) is the world’s leading B2B travel platform, providing software and services to manage travel, expenses, and meetings and events for companies of all sizes. It operates in more than 140 countries.

Amplitude’s share price suffered a brutal selloff after announcing it was now 0-for-2 in its ECSP exploration program. Isabella well flowed gas to surface but failed to maintain pressure and flow, disappointing given Isabella was the largest resource target in the program. The balance sheet and A$100m H1 EBITDAX buy time, but with two wells left and FID deferred, the next spud is effectively a must-win for the growth thesis. We retain our BUY rating with a revised A$3.00 target price, but the risk equation has shifted. Priced as an ex-growth cash cow, but still sensitive to well results.

Mastercard is a technology company that provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. It facilitates the processing of payment transactions, including authorisation, clearing, and settlements. The company offers integrated products and value-added services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, businesses, governments, and other organisations.

Boeing is a leading global aerospace and defence manufacturer, founded in 1916 and headquartered in Arlington, United States. The company designs and produces commercial airplanes, military aircraft, satellites, and space systems for customers in more than 150 countries. With a commercial airline market share of approximately 43%, Boeing remains a central player in global aviation. The company enters 2026 focused on production ramp-up, certification milestones for the 737 MAX 7, MAX 10 and 777-9, and a strategic recovery path under CEO Kelly Ortberg. Its extensive order backlog and diversified defence programs continue to underpin long-term growth opportunities.

Rheinmetall AG is a leading German defence contractor best known for designing and manufacturing tanks, cannons, and advanced combat systems. Its crown jewel is the 120mm smoothbore cannon used on the Leopard 2 main battle tank, widely regarded as one of the most precise and powerful tank guns in service. Rheinmetall is also a core industrial partner in the Franco-German MGCS (Main Ground Combat System) programme, aimed at developing Europe’s next-generation main battle tank.