陳浩庭短評:為何澳洲經濟會继续改善

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By Raymond Chan
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Date posted:
12 September 2017, 8:22 AM

澳洲商業信心指數攀升至自2008年以來最高,因為銷售和利潤皆保持強勁成長,企業對未來也更加有信心。

儲備銀行喺之前嘅政策會議上都表示過,增長將恢復穩定,包括大宗商品的前景有改善。

好多時我地都會聽到一啲分析話,因為供應在短期內受阻,價格會有支持。當然除左供應外,需求亦好緊要嘅,澳洲儲備銀行在八月公布的金融政策聲明中,有兩點就係關於需求。

第一點是國際經濟發展,因為大宗商品需求與中國息息相關。2017年上半年中國國內生產總值輕微上升,主要由擴張性財政政策支持,當中有需求增長,特別是來自服務業的需求,工業的需求仍然好穩健,包括對鋼材的需求,支持澳洲鐵礦砂的出口。

中國需求增加亦刺激原材料價格上升,大宗商品價格兌一籃子貨幣,在去年升百分之 32,同期鐵礦砂價格升百分之 15,兩種主要類別嘅煤,焦煤同燃煤分別升百分之 72 同百分之 32。

聲明值得留意嘅第二點,叫做「全球商品貿易回升」,呢度指嘅商品貿易,易包括一般製造業商品同大宗商品,儲銀留意到呢方面嘅活動自去年起上升,截至今年 5 月全年,在商品總價值上升百分之 9。

儲銀認為,貿易活動對經濟狀況非常敏感,當全球需求回升,貿易一定回復得比需求更快。

從圖一可以睇到,貿易總價值在 2016 年急跌後又回升,儲銀認為,同舊年起環球經濟增長回穩有關,當中以今年上半年嘅升幅尤其明顯。

Chart showing World Merchandise Trade

中國自 2016 年年中開始,重拾對澳洲礦產嘅需求,不單係澳洲,巴西同俄羅斯都同樣受惠,從而帶動全球商品價格回升,澳洲的貿易比價指數亦顯著改善。

儲銀認為,多項嘅因素反映貿易增長會持續改善,細心睇,貨運指數亦向好,全球經濟增長喺未來幾年,唔應該會太差。反映財長莫理遜最近對澳洲經濟改善嘅預測,係基於事實嘅。

Disclaimer(s): Morgans Financial Limited or Morgans Corporate Limited has acted in a corporate advisory capacity in the last 12 months for the companies listed and received fees in this regard.

The author may own, trade or intend to trade the shares discussed above.

The information contained in this report is provided to you by Morgans Financial Limited as general advice only, and is made without consideration of an individual's relevant personal circumstances. Morgans Financial Limited ABN 49 010 669 726, its related bodies corporate, directors and officers, employees, authorised representatives and agents (“Morgans”) do not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising from or in connection with any action taken or not taken on the basis of information contained in this report, or for any errors or omissions contained within. It is recommended that any persons who wish to act upon this report consult with their Morgans investment adviser before doing so.


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