陳浩庭每週短評: 回顧2016迷失的一年

Posted 1 February 2017 12:00 AM by Raymond Chan

Financial Blog Raymond Chan, Picture of Donald Trump美國總統特朗普 (Donald Trump 或譯川普)在白宮接見英國首相文翠珊 (Theresa May),短暫上演一幕世紀牽手。新聞界友人告知,那一幕肯定是特朗普故意讓記者拍到的,使筆者回想起美國已故總統列根 (Ronald Reagan) 與英國首相戴卓爾夫人 (Margaret Thatcher) 一起共舞的親密關係,以及美英共同悍衛資本主義、自由巿場,和堅決對抗前蘇聯的往事。儘管特朗普的素質和言行,根本無法與當年的列根相比。

特朗普在向世界宣示,要與英國、加拿大和澳洲等擁有英裔傳統的國家重建特殊關係。

且看特朗普公布的伊斯蘭七國護照持有人入境禁令,英國、加拿大和澳洲的雙重國籍公民均獲得豁免;特朗普更打倒昨天的我,承諾會履行澳洲與前奧巴馬政府達成的難民收容協議,為澳洲接收在南太平洋魯瑙和馬努斯島上被羈留的難民。

正如筆者去年評論所指,特朗普背後代表的是共和黨保守精英,哪些事只是嘴上說說,哪些事要動真格,看似雜亂無章,實則大有文章。

退出TPP: 並非走向孤立

特朗普退出跨太平洋戰略經濟夥伴關係協議 (TPP),不少傳媒訪問筆者觀點,當時筆者回應是: 若憑此武斷地認為美國從此走向孤立主義,將錯失把握2017年新趨勢的機會。

Financial Blog Raymond Chan, Picture of Donald Trump特朗普每天都有大大小小的公開發言,多不見於新聞,其實這些講稿對掌握美國新政府的管治思維極為重要。擁有經濟學學位和從商經驗豐富的特朗普曾提到,像TPP那樣的多邊貿易協議在執行上難以全面落實,他認為美國應改為與不同的貿易夥伴建立雙邊貿易協議,除了賦予美國更大的彈性,更有利於將美國利益最大化。特朗普一次向工會發表演說時說得很白:「如果對方不遵守協訂,九十天內就把他們解僱 (In 90 days they are fired)。」

澳洲應繼續推動TPP

特朗普不是不喜歡自由貿易協議,只是不喜歡多邊自由貿易協議。

曾經擔任澳洲貿易專員的本行資深分析師諾斯 (Michael Knox) 指,形勢對澳洲有利,一方面澳洲可以繼續通過TPP與多國展開自由貿易,另一方面可以強化與美國和中國分別簽署的雙邊自貿協議。

對於澳洲應否繼續推動TPP,政界爭議甚大。此事不得不提北美自由貿易協議 (NAFTA),特朗普很可能引用協議中一條鮮為人知並且從未執行過的「年度檢討」條款,改變遊戲規則。這個細節經諾斯確認,不應有誤。北美自貿協定的變數將促使加拿大與墨西哥走向TPP,這也是澳洲不應放棄TPP的原因之一。

反思全球化的新時代

筆者印象中,像喬治布殊 (George W. Bush) 那樣的共和黨總統總是嘴上反華,實際對華政策傾向寬鬆。目前來說,分析家不易推斷特朗普意圖擴大美國海軍艦隊的底因,但增建109艘軍艦不是小數目,一旦落實,海軍規模將擴大至越戰以來最大。在特朗普勢將親俄的前提下,擴軍是否針對中國,仍有待觀察;但美國要強化在西太平洋的戰略部署,不能沒有澳洲,因此在經貿上必然向澳洲作出更大的讓步。全球化到底孰好孰壞 ?這是筆者無法解答的爭議,但窮則變、變則通,全球化不應被視為不變的鐡律。作為經濟分析師和金融從業員,筆者不反對全球化,但反對盲目推動全球化。我們必須思考在全球化底下的世界是否更公平?財富分布更平均?世界領袖應否歇一歇,反思由美國保守精英掀起的新思潮,迎接修正全球化步伐的新時代?

特朗普要求跨國大企業回歸美國,事實上早已是大勢所趨。筆者下文再論。


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