Keeping rates stable as inflation rises provides support for the US economy to guard against a hard landing or actual recession.

On the more reliable Trend measure, there was no per capita GDP recession in Australia last year; although there was one in 2008.

The US dollar is overbought against both the Euro and the Aussie Dollar. US bonds are also overbought. Rising inflationary expectations will cause a sell off in the US dollar and in US Bonds.

A decline in the stocks to consumption ratio for refined products puts upward pressure on the oil price.

The world economy will continue to produce healthy growth in 2019

A more modest outlook for US growth and US inflation has reduced the number of rate hikes the Fed needs to make.

The Fed will need to slow the US economy and lift US unemployment from 3.7% now, up to around 4.6%, if it wants to stabilize US inflation in the long term.

A declining stocks to consumption ration of iron ore in China will put upward pressure on the price.

The equities market is moderately cheap and should rally from here. Still, continual Fed tightening is slowly squeezing fundamentals.

Spectacular growth in earnings per share for the S&P500 are giving way to slower but solid growth.