||Australian Finance Group
||We expect FY19F profit from
continuing operations of A$32.9m (Factset consensus A$30.7m) and a 2019 final
dividend of 5.5cps.
||Expecting a messy and very weak result - with
downside risk to guidance and consensus forecasts given weak industry stats
into year-end. We don't expect the company to provide much in the way of
outlook commentary. All focus will be on the proposed APE merger (ACCC
approval may have been attained pre the result).
||We expect there is upside
risk to AX1's 2H growth guidance and therefore consensus expectations – in
store numbers, online sales growth and gross margin. Key to the result
reaction will be the LFL sales trading update and any FY20 guidance (store
rollout, online growth, TAF buybacks). We forecast 8.8% EBITDA growth in
||Forecasting CGC's interim result is very difficult.
Earnings are normally significantly skewed to the 1H (NPAT-SL >85%).
However, we believe a number of the issues raised in the January/May trading
updates will have a greater 1H19 impact and expect stronger 2H19 results from
citrus, tomatoes and berries (vs the pcp). Therefore, we forecast an 8% fall
in NPAT-SL and 1H:2H skew of 77%:23%.
||GARDA Diversified Property Fund
||No surprises expected,
however expect FY20 DPS guidance to be provided (we assume flat growth on the
||We expect first half adjusted NPAT to be A$43.4m, up
14%, excluding one-off costs related to the QuantHouse acquisition. We expect
most earnings growth to be generated in the UK due to recent client
||We are slightly cautious
heading into LAU's result. Key transport peers (AHG's RL and KSC) have
reported soft May trading updates, citing the FNQ floods and subdued Easter
trading. 1H results from ELD/RHL have highlighted that the prolonged East
Coast drought has reduced demand for Rural Supplies, while CGC has
experienced softer produce volumes in some of its categories. Consequently,
we do see some downside risk to guidance.
Tyre & Wheel
||We think NTD can reach the mid-point of its FY19
downgraded EBITDA range. Key to NTD's share price reaction will be commentary
around their ability to offset further FX headwinds and expectations for FY20
(guidance). We think the group has another tough year ahead in FY20.
||Given the recent downgrade,
ADH will achieve its new guidance range (we sit at the mid-upper end -
A$43.4m). The LFL sales growth trading update into early FY20 will be key as
will guidance. We think ADH will take a conservative view on guidance given
recent LFL volatility, persistence of DC headwinds and FX pressure. We factor
this in, but there is risk to consensus.
||Expecting a healthy earnings profile from its
producing Amadeus Basin assets. We forecast underlying NLAT of A$11m. With
limited consensus data available.
||Fortescue Metals Group
||We expect a strong FY19
result from FMG but at this point it looks more than priced in. We forecast
FY19 NPAT of US$2,638m (more than double FY18), versus consensus estimates of
||Expect to see a strong 2H skew in earnings (pcp was
around a 32%/68% split).
||Our forecast net loss of
||We are forecasting EBITDA of A$48.9m (pcp: A$50.7m)
for FY19. Consensus sits at EBITDA of A$50.1m.
||We expect MSV to comfortably meet guidance and our
forecasts are at the upper end of the range. Recent contract wins do require
some minor capex, so MSV's capacity to surprise on capital management is
modest. We expect strong outlook commentary, and possibly an extension to the
buyback, but only a modest dividend.
||Reported NPAT of A$20.9m
and normalised NPAT A$21.9m. Consensus normalised NPAT of A$20.2m. We expect
consensus upgrades to FY20 as business has stabilised and profit growth of
mid-single growth to return.
||The second half of FY19 should see steady earnings
generated from SM-71, with production remaining around ~3,200 boe/d. We
forecast FY19 EBITDAX of US$26.6m. OEL has limited consensus coverage.
||OML is a December-year
balance company and the June half year is normally the weakest, with
typically around one third of profits made in the first half. We would be
surprised if there is any change to the full-year outlook.
||RMS achieved 196,679oz in FY19 (mid-point of
guidance) and is expected to meet AISC guidance (A$1,175-1,225/oz). We
forecast EBITDA of A$101.5m for FY19.
||Viva Energy Group
||We expect few surprises
given the recent guidance downgrade. Given there are a number of headwinds
persisting outside VEA's control, we would expect outlook commentary to
remain cautious and CY19 guidance to be reiterated.
||We expect a significant improvement in operating
performance, with strong top-line revenue growth, and a reduction in the
look-through EBITDA loss rate as more associates reach break-even or become
profitable. We expect Zameen (Pakistan) and Infocasas (Latin America) to
remain the star performers.
||We expect FXL to report
towards low-end of guidance (Morgans A$76.8m; Consensus A$77.2m). Many moving
parts - important ones we think will come through are: volume improvement in
AU Cards (2H19F +5% on pcp) but muted by FLT volumes; improvement in AU Cards
arrears, however still elevated; a solid result in Humm expecting 2H19 NPAT +
10.6% on pcp.
||We forecast underlying NPAT of A$7.1m. Implied 2H19
NPAT of A$4m is up from A$3.1m in 1H. We expect relatively flat EBITDA
margins in the Platform segment at 31.5% (31.1% in 1H). We expect 2H19
revenue margin of 51.4bps, down 7% on 1H19 (slightly more than guidance).
Given the high short-term multiples and market focus on revenue margins –
this could see a negative share price reaction.
||Our EBITDA forecast of
A$215m (+2.9%) is broadly in line with consensus. Despite input cost
headwinds, we forecast modest growth reflecting poultry volume growth of
2.5%. We believe that ING has been able to offset cost headwinds due to
Project Accelerate benefits, opportunistic sales to the higher priced
Wholesale market and customer pass through mechanisms. The decline in NPAT
reflects higher D&A, interest and tax.
||LVH will have released its fourth quarter cash flow
statement well ahead of the result.
||Focus will remain on
production costs in 4Q after production and export shipments were closed for
the Wet Season.
||We think MTO can hit its guidance range given the
recent downgrade. Key to the result reaction will be commentary around
industry conditions (nearing a bottom), cost out strategies and BS position.
We don't envisage industry conditions will improve materially in the
short-term. However, a stabilisation is all that is required for earnings to
rebound given the cost-out.
||A solid 1HFY19 result
assisted with favorable timing of costs is unlikely to be replicated in 2H.
Given operating cost guidance which implies 2H19 costs of A$28.5m and our
view of a broadly similar revenue result to 1H - we expect a significant
reduction in EBITDA from the first half. Given the stretched valuation, we
see a potential pullback on the result which may present a buying
||We expect the result to be broadly in line with
market expectations given updated guidance was provided in mid-May. The
update highlighted several issues that will negatively impact FY19 earnings
and potentially beyond. Consensus estimate for FY19 EBITDA is A$264m.
based on statutory accounts are somewhat meaningless. We forecast a 5%
decline in proportional EBITDA, with the regulated services delivering
relatively steady earnings but conservatively assuming a decline in earnings
from non-regulated activities.
||We believe the restated EBITDA will be achieved. It
was reduced primarily due to a large one-off deal not completing as
||Given WES updated the
market at the Strategy Briefing Day in June and guidance range provided for
Kmart Group, we expect the result to be in line with expectations. Consensus
estimate for FY19 EBIT is A$3,023m.
||Expect few surprises given recent guidance with
consensus sitting in line with this. Prior to the result (due 22 July) we
will know whether AOG receives a formal takeover offer from Brookfield or
not. This is key to AOG's short-term investment view - in its absence, AOG's
share price could de-rate materially.
||Apollo Tourism & Leisure
||We expect a weak result
from ATL, as suggested by the group's two downgrades in the space of a month.
Of most interest will be the balance sheet position and outlook for FY20
conditions. ATL's view on the US market will be key given the quantum of drag
this provided in FY19. We see few share price catalysts.
||We expect strong underlying NPAT-S growth will be
driven by impressive top-line growth in the UK/Europe segment, overall growth
in core branded sales (was +11% 9MYTD) and further sales mix improvements.
||Our EBITDA forecast is
A$51.9m and consensus is A$53.5m. BAL has been impacted by difficult trading
conditions, the delay in receiving SAMR approval, a deliberate decision to
run down distributor trade inventory (A$10m hit) and marketing spend doubling
in the 2H19.
||We forecast FY19 NPAT of A$52.3m, up 22.8% on the
pcp. We expect a 2H dividend of 17cps, which is slightly below the pcp (CWP
paid an elevated 1H19 dividend).
||Our forecast is in line
with guidance. MWY's earnings and cashflow are seasonally skewed to the 2H.
Strong earnings growth reflects higher woodchip prices, a lower AUD,
increased volumes (particularly from Tasmania), higher bone dry % and an
improved contribution from QCE and the SWF JV. Recent acquisitions should
also make a minor contribution.
||In particular, we are looking for an improvement in
2H19 REVPAM. No risk to FY19 guidance as was recently reiterated.
revenues with the addition of numerous acquisitions mid FY. Minor business
interruption occurred as a result of the Townsville floods in February.
Commentary is typically benign although recently pointed to economic boom in
areas post natural disasters which could provide upside.
||We expect OZL to broadly meet consensus earnings
expectations for 1H19. Earnings are reasonably predictable given OZL is
largely a single mine producer reporting production and costs via their
quarterlies. We expect a modest dividend.
||We expect a small negative
underlying EBITDA loss (~A$3m) in the second half. We forecast H2 marketplace
revenues of A$119.3m, up 48% on pcp. Gross profit after paid acquisition
costs for H2 is forecast at A$31.7m, up 48% on pcp.
||We expect REH to announce record earnings, up c44% on
FY18 with the first full year profit/benefit from the MORSCO acquisition
coming through. We forecast FY19 EBITDA of A$545m (Consensus E A$540m) with
one off business acquisition costs likely to affect reported profits.
||We forecast FY19 EBITDA
growth of 4.9% to A$39.8m on the back of higher revenue from acquisitions and
some organic growth. GOCF is forecast to be A$23.0m with a slight improvement
in GOCF conversion, while we estimate a flat dividend of 2.3cps.
||We expect the APRR (~85% of ALX's equity value) to
deliver 1% EBITDA growth and see a 59% drop in interest costs. The Dulles
Greenway remains in lock-up. Fund costs have been incurred for
||We think APE can achieve
the top-end of its Underlying NPBT guidance range (cA$51.8m, -7% on pcp)
which would exceed our and consensus forecasts. This is before factoring in
the equity accounting of AHG investment from 23 April. While industry
conditions remain difficult, most of the upside from here lies with the AHG
merger should it proceed (ACCC ruling key).
||Preliminary FY20 guidance was provided with the
recent capital raising and comprises operating EPS of 8.1-8.3c and DPS of not
less than 7.5c. We sit in line with this guidance.
||Link Administration Holdings
||Given LNK has provided
guidance recently, hence FY19 results figures should contain few surprises
(Consensus EBITDA $352m). We note the mid-point of the FY19 Operating NPATA
guidance range is ~5% below pcp, which reflects earnings headwinds from
Brexit and higher costs associated with regulatory change in Funds
||We believe RHC will be able to eke out its modest
FY19 guidance on the back of cost-outs and a lower tax rate.
||We expect sales growth to
be broadly in line with expectations following good momentum in 3Q19. The key
however, will be margins with WOW dealing with input cost pressures such as
meat and increased labour expense on the back of the new EBA in January. Consensus
estimate for FY19 EBIT is A$2,689m.
||We expect a strong maiden full year result, with
meaningful top-line growth being driven by recent product releases (Ninja
V/Shinobi). Given recently updated guidance, we don't expect many
||CLH reaffirmed guidance in
late June, so we don't expect major surprises to the headline result.
Reported numbers include the PDL sale for A$25m (pcp A$19.5m), which will
boost the cashflow result.
||Our forecast and consensus are in line with guidance.
Strong EBITDA growth reflects solid demand for FNP's existing products across
Australia and Asia, new product launches, expanded distribution and the
scaling of new facilities. Modest NPAT growth reflects higher D&A,
interest and tax.
||We forecast a FY19 net loss
after tax of $4.3m but with EBITDA improving significantly to $6m from a full
year of production at Kidston Solar. Production is now fully contracted and
the prices are less than spot electricity and carbon prices in FY18 so despite
higher volumes we expect Commodity Sales to fall.
||We forecast a net loss of A$11.7m on revenue of
A$2.0m. MX1 has received A$4.0m in R&D tax incentives in FY19. The focus
will be on commentary around Carestream's likely demand for the Nano and
timelines for the Thales program.
||We expect EBITDA towards
the top end of guidance and capex to be less than guidance. NXT contracted
9.4MW in 1H19 and we forecast a total of 15.1MW contracted for FY19 (5.7MW in
||PWR Holdings Limited
||We expect earnings growth
to be driven by motorsports, aftermarket and emerging technologies. OEM
contracts will also positively impact earnings and we anticipate the
contribution from this segment to rise significantly in FY20. Consensus
estimate for FY19 EBITDA is A$21.1m.
||No surprises expected given QRLY reporting. Focus
will be on commentary regarding commercialisation efforts post CE-mark
approval and potential timing updates around FDA approval expectations for
the ResApp-DX device.
||Acrow Formwork and Construction Services
||Given ACF's latest trading
update was recent (May) we think the FY19 result will be largely in line with
expectations. While the scaffold market remains soft, this should be more
than offset by strong formwork growth. A healthy infrastructure pipeline also
bodes well for longer term earnings growth and we expect an update on
potential project wins.
||We forecast an FY19 underlying EBITDA of A$25m
(Factset Consensus A$19.4m) and a FY19 NPAT loss of A$48m.
||Our forecast and consensus
are in line with guidance. Earnings growth reflects the acquisition of Koroit
and growth from Bega Foods, while Bega Cheese is impacted by structural
issues and cost pressures and TMI by lower global dairy prices, reduced nutritional
sales and paying too much for milk. NPAT will be impacted by materially
higher D&A and interest expense.
||Forecast 14% NPAT growth
(MorgansE PGK24m). We expect KSL's FY19 earnings to be skewed to the second
half on seasonality (quieter Christmas/holiday period in the 1st half) and
higher costs associated with the ANZ PNG acquisition in 1H19 (completion
||We forecast a strong result from PPE given good
organic growth and strategic acquisitions which should see EBITDA growth of
+50% on the pcp. We expect a final dividend of 4cps, in-line with the 1H19
||We expect SFR to broadly meet consensus earnings
expectations for FY19. Earnings are reasonably predictable given SFR is a
single mine producer reporting production and costs via their quarterlies. We
expect a modest dividend.