Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox uses the Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator to model the US economy and explain why there is no incoming US Recession.
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Economics and markets
The FED says 'No US Recession'
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Federal Budget 2024/25 – unlikely to move the needle on earnings or inflation
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One year is a long time in politics. After delivering a budget that straddled the right balance between balance sheet repair and fiscal expansion, the 2024/25 budget was delivered with an eye to next year’s election. Tonight’s announcements centred around cost-of-living relief for all and the well-publicised plan for a “Future Made in Australia” promising over $22bn in spending over the next ten years but also bringing higher deficits over the forecast period.
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A budget balance of 0.3% of GDP is better than no balanced budget at all.
Michael Knox
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
Jim Chalmers talks as if he is delivering a big surplus. Certainly, $9.3 billion sounds like a lot of money. However, last year Australian GDP was an amazingly large $2.6 trillion. The Budget Papers (Table 1.2) show this budget surplus as just a small budget balance of 0.3% of GDP. Of course, a budget balance of 0.3% is better than no balanced budget at all.
