Reporting Calendar

Reporting Season February 2020 is here.

You can read our Reporting Season Preview on the Morgans Blog or scroll through the table below for individual reporting dates, our stock recommendations and our company comments.

For detailed analysis from our award-winning Research team on the company results once released, visit:

Upcoming results

Date Company ASX Rating Comments
31/01/2020 ResMed Inc RMD ADD We expect revenues should be negatively impacted by cycling US tax reforms, but modest comps (2QFY19, revenue +8.3%; NPAT +0.6%), favourable seasonality, new products and SaaS-based acquisitions add revenue uplift.
5/02/2020 Centuria Industrial REIT CIP HOLD We expect FY20 guidance to be reiterated. Current NTA is A$2.83.
5/02/2020 Centuria Metropolitan REIT CMA HOLD We expect FY20 guidance will be reiterated.
6/02/2020 Pinnacle Investment Mgmt PNI ADD We forecast 1H20 NPAT of A$12.2m (~35% 1H skew which is in-line with previous results). We expect composition to be: 1) group EBITDA -A$5.1m; and 2) share of associates A$17.3m. We expect a neutral result reaction – however note given the large 2H20 skew there is some downside risk based on sentiment around operating leverage not coming through (and an increased PNI Parent loss).
7/02/2020 REA Group REA REDUCE We expect reported NPAT to decline 6.2% due to the impact of the national listings drought. New “for sale” listings were down ~12% in the 1H. 2H-to-date listings are showing no signs of improvement.
7/02/2020 HRL Holdings HRL ADD We expect HRL to deliver a solid 1H20 result, in line with its recent guidance. The result will illustrate that management has successfully replaced the ~A$2.5m (annualised) of lost EBITDA following the reduction in meth testing volumes with new, higher quality food and environmental laboratory tests and restructuring initiatives.
10/02/2020 Aurizon Holdings AZJ ADD We target 1H20 underlying EBIT growth of 8% on pcp to $440m, and DPS growth of 15% to 13.1 cps (70% franked).
10/02/2020 JB Hi-Fi JBH HOLD We expect JBH to print strong SSS growth in JB Aust (+4%) with the potential for margins to surprise. We expect the base JB FY20 sales guidance to look increasingly conservative, while the typical provision of FY20 NPAT guidance at the interim result may surprise vs consensus expectations (widely expected given recent share price strength/elevated multiples).
10/02/2020 Praemium PPS ADD December quarter funds on platform were in line with our forecasts, so revenues should not surprise. As always, costs are hard to predict. An update on the transition of ANZ Private clients off platform should provide a line of sight on 2H20 revenues.
11/02/2020 Beach Energy BPT HOLD We forecast 1H20 underlying net profit of $247m.
11/02/2020 Challenger Financial Svcs CGF HOLD We forecast a 1H20 NPBT of ~A$260m (Bloomberg estimates A$270m) and an NPAT of ~A$188m.
11/02/2020 Suncorp Group SUN ADD We forecast a 1H20 cash NPAT of A$466m. While this is up 13% on a weak pcp, the 1H20 result will still be relatively soft affected by high insurance claims and continued pressures in the bank.
11/02/2020 Transurban Group TCL HOLD We forecast 1H20 proportional EBITDA growth of +12% (dependent on M5 acquisition timing) and Free CF declining 8% (but treating additional debt from 1H20 refinancings as Free CF may deliver 22% growth).
11/02/2020 Aventus Group AVN ADD We expect FY20 guidance to be reiterated. December revaluations have already been announced (cap rate remained stable at 6.7%). NTA at June 2019 was A$2.15. Gearing is around 35%.
11/02/2020 Bapcor BAP HOLD BAP reiterated its FY20 NPAT growth guidance at its AGM, however there was a softening in tone from management, likely reflecting margin pressure (especially in Trade). We think this year’s earnings growth will be reasonably skewed to the 2H (3.8%/8.6% 1H/2H growth), largely due to softer Trade margins/earnings in the 1H, potentially underwhelming the market.
12/02/2020 CAR REDUCE At the AGM in late October, CAR stated that its core Dealer and Private advertising business were showing “solid” growth in the first four months of FY20. In our view this should deliver modest revenue and earnings uplift. We expect 1H20 NPAT of A$60.2m, up 6.6%.
12/02/2020 Commonwealth Bank CBA HOLD We are forecasting 1H20 cash earnings of $4.434bn and an interim dividend of $2.00 fully-franked (unchanged from pcp).
12/02/2020 Computershare CPU HOLD We forecast a 1H20 management NPAT of ~A$170m, down ~10% on pcp.
12/02/2020 CSL Ltd CSL HOLD In line, with a modest 1H comp (+10%), continued share gains expected across plasma-derived products, and a strong start to the North American flu season for Seqirus, but with headwinds from new Albumin distribution model in China and increasing competition across recombinant products.
12/02/2020 Evolution Mining EVN HOLD After a shaky start to FY20 which led to a guidance downgrade, we expect EVN to deliver at the lower end of production guidance for the 1H20. MorgansE is at the lower end of production and upper end of cost guidance.
12/02/2020 Insurance Australia Group IAG HOLD IAG has disclosed that as a result of recent bushfire activity, it’s 1H20 natural hazard losses will be A$80m above allowances. We now forecast a 1H20 insurance margin of 15% and a 1H20 cash NPAT of A$440m (Bloomberg consensus A$449m).
12/02/2020 Orora ORA ADD Consistent with the 1Q20 trading update, we expect trading conditions in Australasia and North America to remain subdued. We forecast Australasia earnings to continue to grow, offset by weaker North America earnings. Overall we forecast group EBIT to be broadly flat (+1%).
12/02/2020 IDP Education IEL ADD We expect a strong result from IEL, reflecting strength in its multi-destination (UK, Canada) student placement business, a return to >10% IELTS volume growth (as per historical levels) and a catch up in cash flow conversion following a weaker 2H19. We expect the market to respond positively to the result, driven primarily by a strong student placement outcome.
12/02/2020 Megaport Limited MP1 ADD We forecast MP1 to end FY20 with a presence in 340 Data Centres across North America, Europe and APAC (up from 300 in June 2019). We expect strong revenue growth but the ongoing expansion of MP1 to mean that cost growth matches revenue growth and EBITDA is broadly flat yoy.
13/02/2020 AGL Energy AGL REDUCE We forecast a very weak half with net profit of $314m.
13/02/2020 AMP Ltd AMP HOLD We forecast an FY19 underlying operating profit of ~A$560m (Bloomberg consensus A$565m) and a final dividend of 2cps (consensus 3cps). As a reminder, AMP will report a large headline FY19 loss (MorgansE A$2.3bn) reflecting large impairments taken in 1H19.
13/02/2020 Aust Securities Exchange ASX REDUCE We forecast a 1H20 NPAT of A$246m, broadly flat on the pcp (Bloomberg consensus A$252m). We expect the result to reflect somewhat mixed trading activity for the half, e.g. strong futures volume growth (+9% on pcp) and higher equity value traded (+11% on pcp), offset by soft capital raising activity (-32% on pcp).
13/02/2020 Magellan Financial Group MFG HOLD MFG will deliver a strong result, with average FUM up 28.7% and performance fees of ~A$42m (flat on pcp) in the year (pre-announced). MFG has provided cost growth guidance and we don’t expect any surprises there. Given the strong share price appreciation, we expect a neutral response to a strong result.
13/02/2020 Newcrest Mining NCM HOLD We expect NCM to meet both cost and production guidance after a significant amount of planned maintenance was carried out across multiple sites in Q1.
13/02/2020 South32 S32 ADD We (and consensus) are forecasting a weak first half 2020 earnings performance from South32. The lower first half has been driven by price weakness in South32’s key markets. The decline in coal, aluminium and manganese prices (South32’s three largest earnings drivers) has driven the de-rating in South32. We expect the first half to be a low point in earnings.
13/02/2020 Telstra Corporation TLS ADD We forecast 47% of FY20 EBITDA to occur in 1H20. This is larger than normal due to higher restructuring costs and NBN disconnection payments falling in 1H20. We forecast an 8cps fully franked interim dividend.
13/02/2020 Treasury Wine Estates TWE ADD We forecast 14.4% EBITS growth in 1H20.
13/02/2020 Woodside Petroleum WPL ADD We expect a stronger second half earnings performance from Woodside after an outage-impacted first half at Pluto dragged on annual LNG volumes. We forecast 2019 EPS of US$1.16 per share, -21% year-on-year. With a final dividend of US$0.50 per share.
13/02/2020 IPH Limited IPH HOLD We expect IPH to report 1H20 EBITDA of ~$54m which is up 32% on the pcp due principally to the acquisition of Xenith IP (XIP). We forecast EPS to grow ~28% to 15.7cps and an interim dividend of 14cps.
13/02/2020 Pro Medicus PME ADD We expect a strong result with EBITDA up 20.2% to A$18.9m reflecting continued margin expansion and contributions from Partners Healthcare which went live in 1HFY20.
14/02/2020 Baby Bunting Group BBN ADD We expect a strong result from BBN with EBITDA +38% (GM expansion a key contributor). While 1H20 LFL sales growth may fall short of FY guidance expectations (if website search function issues hasn’t been resolved), GM expansion can offset this. We expect a strong result/growth which could lead to FY20 guidance looking conservative.
14/02/2020 People Infrastructure PPE ADD We forecast very strong revenue growth compared to the pcp due to acquisitions undertaken in FY19 and organic growth. Improving operating leverage (and higher margin acquisitions) should lift EBITDA by ~55% to $13.1m. We forecast an interim dividend of 6cps (fully franked).
17/02/2020 Brambles BXB HOLD BXB’s 1Q20 sales trading update in October was slightly better than we expected with management reiterating full year guidance. Given the relatively stable nature of BXB’s business and the solid start to the half, we do not expect too many surprises at the upcoming result.
17/02/2020 QBE Insurance Group QBE HOLD We forecast a FY19 NPAT of ~US$770m (Bloomberg consensus US$747m) and a final dividend of US17cps (Bloomberg consensus US17cps).
17/02/2020 GWA Group GWA HOLD Given earnings guidance was provided in late October and management’s track record of being fairly conservative, we think the result will be broadly in line with expectations.
18/02/2020 Ansell ANN HOLD We aren’t expecting any major surprises, with risks well known (eg mixed macros; trade wars uncertainty; FX vagaries) and the guidance range wide. Encouragingly, the recent AGM saw management maintain its 3-5% organic top-line growth target, with continued earnings growth expected via various business initiatives (eg cost-outs; improved pricing; lower raw material costs; share buybacks; and favourable product mix).
18/02/2020 APA Group APA HOLD We target 6% EBITDA growth in 1H20, slightly impacted by delays in the start of commercial operation of Orbost. Operating cash flow (+3%) may be dented by high tax and lower interest capitalisation.
18/02/2020 BHP Group BHP HOLD BHP could use excess cash flow from elevated iron ore prices to hike its interim dividend, similar to close peer Rio Tinto. Unlike Rio however, we also see a high probability of BHP announcing a share buyback at its February result, taking advantage of its large franking credit balance.
18/02/2020 Cochlear COH HOLD In line, with improving implant growth in developed markets, but slowing sound processor upgrades and reinvestments to growth awareness/market access impacting leverage.
18/02/2020 Coles Group COL HOLD Management commentary at the AGM in November noted increased sales momentum leading up to the key Christmas trading period. The final two weeks of 1H20 however will be very important to the final outcome of the result.
18/02/2020 OZ Minerals OZL ADD We expect OZL to broadly meet consensus earnings expectations for CY19. Earnings are reasonably predictable given OZL is largely a single mine producer reporting production and costs via their quarterlies. We expect a modest dividend.
18/02/2020 APN Convenience Retail REIT AQR ADD We expect FY20 guidance to be reiterated. There may be new acquisitions announced with the result.
18/02/2020 Beacon Lighting BLX HOLD We expect a softer result from BLX (EBIT -6.3%), with muted top-line growth and GM pressures (largely FX related) impacting. We don’t expect general trading conditions would have improved 2H20-to-date and therefore don’t expect BLX’s result trading update to provide a catalyst. We think the result could underwhelm the market in the context of the valuation here.
18/02/2020 Netwealth Group NWL HOLD 1H20 underlying NPAT of A$19.8m, up 16% on the pcp. Revenue margin compression of 9bp to 42.2bp; EBITDA margin of 51.1% vs FY19A of 52.6%.
18/02/2020 SomnoMed SOM ADD Expect a much cleaner result than FY19 with only minor adjustments resulting from the discontinued RSS business. Expectations are of solid top-line growth given the strong commentary in the AGM presentation and a clearer path to a cashflow positive position. Positive Avant product rollout progress will be key and we anticipate an optimistic outlook with sharpened focus on costs and margin growth to potentially generate upside surprise at the FY20 result.
18/02/2020 Virtus Health VRT HOLD Following a number of one-off adjustments in 1H19 (sale of IP from the IVY transaction, fair value adjustments, etc) followed by an impairment cost for TasIVF in 2H19, we expect an improved EBITDA across FY20 with a stabilisation of cycle volumes.
19/02/2020 Cleanaway Waste Management CWY HOLD We expect flat 1H20 EBITDA (revenue decline, margin expansion), growth in EBIT (lower D&A) and EPS, and a material decline in operating cash flow (landfill remediation spend, tax paid, redundancy costs).
19/02/2020 Domino's Pizza DMP REDUCE We don’t expect many surprises (EBITDA +8%), although expect FY20 growth to be skewed to the 2H (ANZ cycling a weaker base). We expect ANZ growth in the 1H to be limited (c4%), with Japan and Europe doing the heavy lifting. We forecast ANZ margins to fall, offsetting a modest lift in Japan/Europe. Big share price run = some risk given 2H skew.
19/02/2020 Fortescue Metals Group FMG REDUCE We expect Fortescue to post another strong earnings result once again driven by elevated iron ore prices. This leaves significant scope for another large dividend, with Fortescue much more leveraged to iron ore prices than its larger peers since: iron ore accounts for 100% of earnings, and Fortescue’s higher costs / lower achieved prices relative to its larger peers.
19/02/2020 Oil Search OSH HOLD We expect earnings to be slightly ahead of the prior year (+4%), supported by better volumes during the year.
19/02/2020 Sonic Healthcare SHL ADD We aren’t expecting any major surprises, with the recent AGM noting “in line trading conditions”, coupled with our expectations for continued healthy organic lab growth, stable collection centre rents, and a fairly benign regulatory backdrop.
19/02/2020 Sydney Airport SYD HOLD FY20 experienced close to flat pax growth. We expect 4% EBITDA growth (contracted price escalation, cost decline) driving 5% growth in Net Operating Receipts.
19/02/2020 Tabcorp Holdings TAH HOLD We expect the company to report a solid lottery result driven by jackpot performance while we anticipate a weak wagering result and a gaming services result that is down on the pcp.
19/02/2020 Wesfarmers WES HOLD While we expect Bunnings to continue to grow, there is potential short-term risk from the smoke and poor air quality due to the bushfires that could affect outdoor activity. Kmart and Target could also be impacted due to the weak sentiment.
19/02/2020 APN Industria REIT ADI HOLD We expect FY20 guidance to be reiterated.
19/02/2020 Cedar Woods Properties CWP HOLD Half year results are largely irrelevant for developers given large earnings skews occur based on project delivery. As guided, we expect a meaningful 2H20 earnings skew (~30-35% delivery in 1H20).
19/02/2020 Corporate Travel Management CTD ADD Given the challenging global macro environment, higher North American costs and increased corporate overheads, we expect a weak 1H20. We forecast underlying EBITDA of A$65.5m (+1.3% on the pcp). Due to higher D&A and tax, we expect 1H20 underlying NPATA to fall 5.9% on the pcp.
19/02/2020 Data#3 DTL HOLD We do not expect any major surprises at the DTL result given it has preleased the result already. We forecast negative operating cashflow in 1H20 which is traditional for DTL’s business model.
19/02/2020 Ebos Group EBO HOLD We forecast 1H20 EBITDA growth of 14.5% to A$140.3m and NPAT growth of 18.8% to A$79.9m.
19/02/2020 Hotel Property Investments HPI HOLD Expect FY20 DPS guidance to be reaffirmed which implies a 2H distribution of 10.4cps. NTA at June 2019 was A$2.93.
19/02/2020 Lovisa LOV ADD We expect an in-line result from LOV, with c2% SSS growth and store rollout providing strong top-line growth (+20%). However, earnings (EBIT +9.6%) will be somewhat hampered by FX headwinds (COGS) and opex deleverage as LOV ramps up its US operations. We don’t see meaningful risk to consensus expectations, both to the downside or upside.
19/02/2020 Over The Wire OTW ADD We forecast 40% yoy revenue; 35% yoy EBITDA; and 20% yoy dividend growth for 1H20.
19/02/2020 Pact Group PGH HOLD The last 12 months have been tough for PGH with several disappointing earnings downgrades. While the operating environment remains challenging, we expect the 1H20 result to broadly meet market expectations given the AGM update in November noted a reasonable start to the first four months of trading in FY20.
19/02/2020 SmartGroup SIQ HOLD Guidance was provided recently and we expect SIQ to marginally beat. We expect moderate (~5%) 2H19 revenue growth (vs pcp) and slight margin compression. We expect a neutral share price reaction to the result, however see the potential for capital management to be announced.
19/02/2020 Vocus Communications VOC HOLD We forecast 46% of FY20 EBITDA to fall in 1H20 vs a 47% 1H skew in FY19. We forecast broadly flat full year EBITDA, in-line with guidance, however we forecast EBITDA to decline in the 1H on lower revenue and higher transformational costs.
19/02/2020 Webjet WEB HOLD We forecast 1H20 EBITDA of A$81.0m. The 1H benefits from five additional months of the DOTW acquisition and synergies, WebBeds market share gains, Webjet OTA is expected to post EBITDA growth of 1-5%, Online Republic will be down on the pcp and corporate OHs will be up on 1H19.
20/02/2020 Coca-Cola Amatil CCL HOLD We forecast underlying NPAT to fall 1.7% in FY19. Our forecasts are marginally ahead of consensus estimates.
20/02/2020 Medibank MPL HOLD We forecast a 1H20 NPAT of A$197m (Bloomberg consensus A$200m) and a 1H20 dividend of 6cps (Bloomberg consensus 6cps). A deteriorating industry claims environment, highlighted by MPL’s recent provision top-up and peer NHF’s profit downgrade, tilts result risks to the downside.
20/02/2020 Origin Energy ORG HOLD We forecast 1H20 underlying net profit will be $532m (-10% on pcp).
20/02/2020 Santos STO HOLD We expect a healthy 2H result from Santos, supported by solid earnings on good operational and cost performances across its diversified portfolio. This should also see ongoing support for a recovering dividend profile.
20/02/2020 Whitehaven Coal WHC ADD We expect WHC to broadly meet market expectations for 1H20. We see downside risk to our modest dividend expectation. Core drivers around thermal coal markets (pricing), production performance and cost control are typically covered in detail each quarter ahead of earnings results.
20/02/2020 Accent Group AX1 HOLD We expect a solid result from AX1, forecasting c14.5% revenue growth and 10% EBITDA growth. Our 1H key assumptions sit in line with the group’s FY guidance (modest comps, flat COGS/CODB).
20/02/2020 Bingo Industries BIN HOLD We are targeting 67% EBITDA growth in 1H20 driven by investment (growth projects, DADI acquisition) and price increases offset by Sydney residential construction headwinds and loss of Qld-SEQ arbitrage.
20/02/2020 Domain Holdings Australia DHG REDUCE We forecasts first half NPAT of A$18.6m, down 12% on the pcp. Underlying cost reductions (~7%) are helping to offset the impact of lower listings volumes.
20/02/2020 Garda Property Group GDF HOLD We expect FY20 DPS guidance to be reiterated, however if there are leasing delays on Botanicca 9 then FFO guidance would likely fall from 8.6c to 8.1c.
20/02/2020 IRESS IRE ADD We expect that IRESS should report a result towards the top end of guidance. We also expect that IRESS will guide for another year of 6%-10% in segment profit growth.
20/02/2020 OptiComm OPC HOLD We forecast yoy revenue growth of 8% and EBITDA growth of 6%. We forecast 46% of PF EBITDA to occur in 1H20 and free cash flow to be skewed more heavily to 2H20 as MDU builds and one-off capex will have a more significant impact in the 1H20.
20/02/2020 Perpetual PPT HOLD We forecast a 1H20 normalised NPAT of A$57m (Bloomberg consensus A$55m). We note Equity markets have been a mild positive in 1H20 (All Ords +3%), with PPT’s revenue sensitivity to a +/-1% movement in the All Ords being +/-A$1.75m-A$2.25m (annualised basis).
20/02/2020 Super Retail Group SUL ADD SUL recently provided a trading update to quantify the impact of the bushfires. We therefore expect few surprises given guidance provided (EBIT -c8.4%). The result trading update is unlikely to show much improvement from recent trends which provides some risk in terms of sentiment.
20/02/2020 Viva Energy REIT VVR HOLD We expect FY20 guidance to be provided with the result.
21/02/2020 The Star Entertainment Group SGR ADD We sit at the lower end of SGR’s guidance range and forecast EBITDA of $302.5m with growth of 1.8% on the pcp. This growth is driven by the significant cost out strategy that was flagged at the FY19 result.
21/02/2020 Adairs ADH ADD We expect reasonable LFL sales growth of 3.5%, although annualisation of higher 1H19 supply chain costs and FX pressure (lower supply costs won’t benefit until 2H20) will likely put pressure on earnings in the 1H (we forecast EBIT -4.7%), before easing in 2H20. Expecting a 2H earnings growth skew (even after accounting for the Mocka acquisition where we forecast a negligible contribution in 1H20) and for FY20 guidance to be maintained.
21/02/2020 Australian Finance Group AFG HOLD We are forecasting 1H20 profit from continuing operations of $18.45m and an interim dividend of 5.4cps fully franked.
21/02/2020 Icar Asia ICQ ADD iCar’s 4C cash flow disclosures showed strong YOY growth in revenue generation and costs under control.
21/02/2020 Infigen Energy IFN ADD We forecast 1H20 underlying net profit of $23m.
21/02/2020 Inghams ING HOLD We forecast 1H20 EBITDA to fall 16.1% on the pcp. Due to higher D&A and tax rate we forecast NPAT to decline by 23.5%.
21/02/2020 Lindsay Australia LAU HOLD Following its positive 1Q20 trading update, we expect a solid 1H20 result. We think earnings growth will be driven by a six-month contribution from its new refrigerated rail offering (launched in late 1H19) and supported by increased sales of higher margin Rural products. We note LAU is also cycling a softer pcp which was impacted by an elevated number of road accidents.
21/02/2020 Monash IVF MVF ADD Although the operating environment remains challenging, we are confident the guidance provided will be achieved.
21/02/2020 Orocobre ORE ADD Even at the weak December quarter LCE price, we model positive cashflow and operating profit for the half year. Unrealised non-cash charges related to the USD/Argentinean peso exchange rate may dominate the result.
24/02/2020 NIB Holdings NHF HOLD We forecast a 1H20 UOP of ~A$89m and a dividend of 9cps. We note NHF downgraded FY20 earning guidance in early January, reflecting mainly higher claims costs across all of its underwriting businesses.
24/02/2020 Reliance Worldwide RWC HOLD FY20 earnings guidance was reaffirmed in late October. With economic conditions in RWC’s key regions (Americas, EMEA, Asia-Pacific) remaining broadly unchanged during 1H20 we expect market expectations to be met.
24/02/2020 Cooper Energy COE ADD The result is likely to be overshadowed by an update on the start-up of Cooper’s flagship Sole Gas Project, with first sales gas expected during February. The market has been patient while Cooper’s contractors have taken longer than expected to construct and commission the gas plant.
24/02/2020 G8 Education GEM HOLD Guidance implies a 2H19 underlying EBIT outcome of cA$81m which is ~8% below the pcp (cycling the CCS stimulus impact in 2H18).
24/02/2020 Helloworld HLO HOLD We forecast 1H20 EBITDA to increase 13.1%. Earnings growth in Australia is largely due to acquisitions while growth in New Zealand reflects network expansion and cost out. Growth from Rest of World reflects restructuring benefits.
24/02/2020 Jumbo Interactive JIN HOLD Given the recently provided guidance we don’t expect any surprises at the result. We are focussed on new customer additions as well as the company’s share of digital lottery ticket sales.
24/02/2020 Mitchell Services MSV SPEC BUY We expect MSV to broadly meet our 1H expectations, particularly as financials are reported quarterly. The Deepcore acquisition does delay MSV’s de-gearing, hence capital management is unlikely.
24/02/2020 Mosaic Brands MOZ HOLD We expect a weak, albeit pre-released result from MOZ. 1H20 LFL sales of -8% and EBITDA of A$33m has been provided, reflecting a weak Nov/Dec which has been impacted by the recent bushfire tragedy. Key to the result reaction will be updated guidance provided for the FY, which is predicated on whether or not the effects of the bushfire have ceased.
24/02/2020 oOh!media OML ADD OML last updated the market on 3 December. We do not anticipate any surprises. Our forecasts for FY19 and beyond incorporate AASB16 – which moves leasing costs from the opex category to the depreciation and finance segments – and thus are not comparable to guidance or the prior year.
24/02/2020 Ramelius Resources RMS HOLD RMS have a history of achieving cost and production guidance, Q1 guidance was met and we expect to see the same in Q2.
24/02/2020 Viva Energy Group VEA HOLD A difficult year for Viva, with industry wide pressure in all parts of its business. Refining suffered from regional weakness in margins, while retail and commercial business was dragged on by (amongst other things) a jump in competition. Although a weaker H2 appears reflected in consensus.
25/02/2020 QUBE Holdings QUB HOLD We forecast an 7% increase in underlying earnings, driven by 4% increase in EBITDA. The forecast DPS decline reflects the 1cps special dividend in 1H19.
25/02/2020 Seek SEK HOLD SEEK battled tough conditions in most of its core markets in the first half, with job ad volumes down 8% in Australia. We expect underlying NPAT – after acquisition-related amortisation - to be down ~26% to A$73m.
25/02/2020 Spark Infrastructure SKI REDUCE We forecast flat proportional EBITDA driven by regulated network earnings, while capital investment remains large (including directly by SKI in its Bomen solar farm development). Equity cash flow declines as less debt is used to fund capex due to future revenue declines.
25/02/2020 1300 Smiles ONT ADD Expecting a small increase in revenues with full half contributions from a number of acquisitions completed in 1H19. A few one-off costs are expected to weigh on profit lines as a result of professional service fees for its Maven Dental bid and a number of acquisitions. Commentary is typically benign although a recent pick-up in mining activity surrounding its regional hubs (in particular North QLD) may provide a hint of optimism.
25/02/2020 Apollo Tourism & Leisure ATL HOLD We expect a softer result from ATL, with positive growth in its rental operations (Aust/NZ/North America) offset by continued margin pressure in the sale of its US fleet (oversupply in market) and new Aust RV sales (margin pressure). We see potential downside risk to outlook commentary given the recent Australian bushfire tragedies and its impact on ATL’s Australian rental operations, in addition to persistently subdued US sales conditions.
25/02/2020 Blackmores BKL HOLD Our forecast is in line with guidance. A weak 1H20 may be overshadowed by new management’s strategy to turn around the business. Net debt will rise post funding the Catalent acquisition.
25/02/2020 FlexiGroup FXL HOLD We expect FXL to report Cash NPAT ~9% below the underlying pcp. We expect composition to be: lower NPAT for Humm, Consumer Leasing and NZ Leasing vs the pcp, improved earnings in AU Cards and NZ Cards (vs pcp, however down on 2H19). We expect 1H20 volume growth of ~9.8% (vs FY20 guidance of +15%).
25/02/2020 HUB24 HUB ADD We forecast underlying NPAT of A$5.7m, up 85% on the pcp. Revenue margin expectation: 9bp compression to 46.2bp. Platform EBITDA margin expectation: expansion to 37.9% (+679bp), however expect the margin growth to moderate in 2H due to a full half of cost growth.
25/02/2020 Kelly Partners KPG ADD We expect the 1H20 numbers to build on the rebound recorded in 2H19: revenue growth +9.5%; and group EBITDA margins back to ~29%. We expect 1H20 NPATA of A$2m to show the group is on track to hit our FY20 forecasts.
25/02/2020 Livehire LVH ADD Most of the relevant first half result was disclosed in the recent 4C cash flow statement. The rate of new client wins is the primary driver of sentiment.
26/02/2020 Afterpay Touch APT ADD We forecast 1H20 revenue of A$210.4m (Bloomberg consensus A$184m) and 1H20 NPAT of -A$3.8m (Bloomberg consensus of -A$12m).
26/02/2020 Rio Tinto RIO HOLD We expect to see a large step up in Rio Tinto’s earnings quality driven primarily by elevated iron ore prices during 2019. Coupled with active buybacks during the year, we expect Rio’s group EPS to grow 44% in the second half vs the pcp.
26/02/2020 Woolworths WOW HOLD All operating divisions delivered LFL sales growth in 1Q20 and expect this to be the case again in 2Q20. Management said at the AGM in mid-December that they were generally pleased with trading to date, although the final two weeks of 1H20 will be very important.
26/02/2020 AP Eagers APE HOLD Industry volumes continue to be weak which poses further short-term earnings risk. The statutory result will also be messy given partial equity accounting of the AHG stake and then full earnings contribution from late October. We forecast FY19 underlying core APE NPBT of A$100m (-10.6%). We think consensus forecasts from CY20 remain too high.
26/02/2020 Australian Vintage AVG HOLD In line with the company’s recent trading update, we expect a soft 1H20 result. We forecast underlying NPAT-S of A$6.3m, down 10.1% on the pcp due to higher processing costs (low volume V19), increased grape costs and greater marketing investment. We expect these headwinds will more than offset the benefit of a favourable AUDGBP and improved sales mix.
26/02/2020 Catapult Group International CAT ADD We expect that Catapult will report first half underlying EBITDA (before share plan amortisation costs) of A$6.1m. We expect that the uplift will be driven by a higher number of leased elite wearable devices in use, coupled with lower losses on the prosumer business.
26/02/2020 Frontier Digital Ventures FDV ADD We expect FDV to deliver strong revenue growth, coupled with diminishing start-up losses from both consolidated and equity accounted investments.
26/02/2020 Healius HLS ADD Quantitative FY20 guidance was only recently provided at the AGM, so we wouldn’t expect any major surprises coming into 1H results.
26/02/2020 Intega Group ITG ADD We forecast 1H20 EBITDA of $15.6m and a very slight 49%/51% skew to the financial results. We don’t expect a dividend to be declared given the focus is on growth and acquisitions.
26/02/2020 InvoCare IVC HOLD IVC has been relatively quiet over the past few months with its last trading update at the 1H19 result in August. However, close peer Propel Funeral Partners’ (PFP) update in October suggested that death volumes continue to revert to the long term trend after a decline in FY18. This should be positive for IVC and we forecast FY19 EBITDA to be up 20% to A$142m (incl. impact from AASB16) (consensus A$138m).
26/02/2020 Michael Hill International MHJ HOLD Sales have been pre-released and MHJ noted that the store GM remained consistent with recent quarters. Our GP/GM includes profit from stores and manufacturing etc. We forecast a c0.9% lift in 1H EBIT with FX/gold price the major headwind. The final wage remediation cost will be of interest and whether this impacts MHJ’s FY20 dividend (possible in the 2H).
26/02/2020 Nanosonics NAN HOLD We are forecasting EBITDA to reduce by 5.6% to A$9.5m for 1HFY20.
26/02/2020 National Storage REIT NSR HOLD Expect FY20 guidance to be reiterated.
26/02/2020 Redbubble RBL ADD RBL downgraded market expectations in December due to discounting the market for stickers and difficulty restoring organic growth in the core Redbubble t-shirt business.
26/02/2020 Regis Healthcare REG HOLD Operational improvement is skewed to 2H20 (47%/53%), and we expect cautious commentary at the 1H20 result.
26/02/2020 ResApp Health RAP SPEC BUY No surprises given quarterly reporting. Focus will remain on commentary regarding first commercialisation deals (size/pricing/structure) in Europe and Australia followed by US post FDA children’s approval which we expect any day.
27/02/2020 Atlas Arteria ALX HOLD We expect the APRR (~85% of ALX’s equity value) to deliver 3% EBITDA growth in 2H19 and benefit from a 14% drop in interest costs. The Dulles Greenway remains in distribution lock-up.
27/02/2020 Flight Centre Travel FLT HOLD We are at the mid-point of FLT’s guidance. Due to revenue margin pressure and a higher cost base, we forecast the NPBT margin to fall from 1.3% in the 1H19 to 0.8% in the 1H20. 1H20 has been impacted by continued challenges in Australian Leisure, increased losses from the ‘Other’ segment, unrest in the Dominican Republic, Brexit uncertainty and disruption from the Hong Kong Protests.
27/02/2020 Ramsay Health Care RHC HOLD We expect an inline result, with hospital claim inflation appearing to be strengthening.
27/02/2020 The A2 Milk Company A2M HOLD Our EBITDA forecast of NZ$252.1m, up 15.4% on the pcp, is at the higher end of guidance. Strong earnings growth reflects strong product demand, improved sales velocity, increased points of distribution, market share gains, price rises, scale benefits and favourable product mix.
27/02/2020 Atomos AMS ADD We expect an in line result. Given working capital constraints at the start of the FY, delay in the launch of its new Neon product, and Black Friday promotional activity, we expect AMS’ revenue and earnings to have a 2H skew. Key will be commentary around the product pipeline and commentary around the initial uptake of the Neon device (shipping commenced).
27/02/2020 Bega Cheese BGA HOLD We forecast 1H20 EBITDA to fall 15%. Given the company’s operating and financial leverage, we forecast NPAT to fall by 33%. Falling milk supply due to drought and excess manufacturing capacity is continuing to cause fierce competition for milk and is seeing dairy manufacturers offer a farmgate milk price well in excess of what it should be under more normal circumstances.
27/02/2020 Cardno CDD ADD We expect a significant skew in our FY20 earnings forecast with 1H20 contributing ~35% due to the current issues in the APAC business which are in the process of being resolved.
27/02/2020 Costa Group Holdings CGC HOLD A weak result has been well flagged. FY19 has been an extremely challenging year for CGC with challenges experienced across its entire domestic Produce segment due to adverse demand, price, yield, drought and cost impacts. A successive below average Morocco blueberry season has exacerbated domestic issues.
27/02/2020 Cromwell Property Group CMW HOLD We expect FY20 guidance to be reiterated.
27/02/2020 Midway MWY HOLD Our 1H20 EBITDA forecast is A$4.0m compared to A$12.2m in the pcp. As always, this forecast depends on the timing of shipments in December. Given higher D&A, MWY will likely report a 1H20 loss.
27/02/2020 Reece REH HOLD We expect 1HFY20 earnings from Australia and New Zealand to be 8% lower on PCP due to subdued demand from downstream markets, and earnings from the US markets to be 11% higher on PCP, boosted by the acquisition of Todd Pipes. We expect group EBITDA to be A$253m, 3% lower on 1H19.
27/02/2020 Sunland Group SDG HOLD Half year results are largely irrelevant for developers given large earnings skews occur based on project delivery. Given there has been several larger asset sales we may see some FY guidance delivered with the result. We are forecasting a 1H dividend of 4c (ff), however there may be upside to this given the recent asset sales.
28/02/2020 Freedom Foods Group FNP HOLD Strong growth reflects strong demand for its existing products across Australia and Asia, new product launches, expanded distribution and the scaling of new facilities.
28/02/2020 Japara Healthcare JHC HOLD We expect 1HFY20 to be weak given occupancy concerns and higher costs highlighted by management. As a result, our forecast EBITDA is 5.9% lower to A$20.8m for 1HFY20.
28/02/2020 Micro-X MX1 SPEC BUY We are forecasting a net loss of A$6.0m for 1HFY20. The focus will be on cost containment, commentary around Carestream’s likely demand for the Nano, and timelines for the Thales program.
28/02/2020 Motorcycle Holdings MTO ADD We expect a weaker 1H result from MTO despite the cost-out program and better-than-expected dealership earnings. This is largely due to expected earnings pressure in the Cassons/MCA businesses (competition and model shifts). Despite having a skew to the 2H, we think MTO can still achieve our FY forecasts given the group is cycling a very weak 2H19 period.
28/02/2020 PWR Holdings Limited PWH ADD We expect earnings growth to be driven by motorsports, aftermarket and emerging technologies. OEM contracts will also positively impact earnings.
28/02/2020 Shine Corporation SHJ ADD SHJ’s result is traditionally skewed to the 2H and we again expect that to be the case here. We forecast ~7% growth in NPAT driven by higher revenues and further operational efficiencies and expect EPS to grow by the same amount to 4.4cps, while DPS is expected to grow by 11% to 1.4cps.

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