UK economy suffers sharp slowdown
Britain's economy has slowed sharply, according to a survey that casts doubt on growing expectations among investors that the Bank of England may be gearing up to raise interest rates again in coming months.
Sterling fell and British government bonds briefly rose after financial data firm IHS Markit said growth in the world's sixth-biggest economy looked set to slow to 0.3 per cent in the first quarter, down from 0.5 per cent in the last three months of 2017.
The slowdown was driven mostly by Britain's dominant services sector, where activity growth fell to a 16-month low of 53.0 in January from 54.2 in December, as measured by IHS Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).
By contrast, euro zone businesses began 2018 with their strongest growth in well over a decade, IHS Markit said - figures that highlighted the gap between Britain, as it heads for Brexit, and its European neighbours.
Combined with weaker-than-expected surveys last week for Britain's manufacturing and construction sectors, Monday's report suggests the country in January grew at its slowest pace since just after the 2016 referendum vote to leave the EU.
"With the survey also indicating weaker upward price pressures, the data therefore cast doubts on any imminent rise in interest rates," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.
But George Buckley, an economist with Nomura, said the survey suggested growth might slow only to 0.4 per cent - enough to keep the BoE on track to raise rates four times between now and the end of 2019, more than investors currently expect.
The BoE is due to announce new economic forecasts on Thursday and investors are watching for any signs that it is moving towards a rate hike in the coming months, after it raised rates in November for the first time in a decade.
Britain's economy grew faster than anticipated at the end of 2017, and financial markets have put a 50-50 chance on a BoE rate hike in May.
Monday's survey shows that companies blamed the slowdown on the non-renewal of old contracts, bad weather and a loss of clients, as well as uncertainty about the outcome of the Brexit negotiations facing British Prime Minister Theresa May.
Although new work came in faster than in December, it was below the average for 2017.
But there were some positives. Job creation picked up as services firms remain positive about the outlook and business confidence was the highest since March 2017.
Inflation in the prices charged by firms eased to a four-month low but remained high. Input prices rose at their slowest pace since September 2016.
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