Fiscal outlook grim in New Zealand
DEBT AND DEFICITS: NEW ZEALAND'S HORROR ECONOMIC FORECASTS
After a decade of solid growth, New Zealand's economy is heading backwards after COVID-19's one-in-one hundred year shock.
* 2020 GDP growth: -4.6 per cent
The recession is predicted to last through to next year until a strong rebound in 2022.
* 2021 GDP growth: -1.0 per cent
* 2022 GDP growth: 8.6 per cent
* 2023 GDP growth: 4.6 per cent
* 2024 GDP growth: 3.6 per cent
The New Zealand government's response has been unprecedented spending on stimulus and support, putting the budget back in the red.
* 2020 Deficit: $28.3 billion ($7.4 billion surplus in 2019)
The budget is expected to stay in deficit through the forward estimates period
* 2021 Deficit: $29.6 billion
* 2022 Deficit: $27.2 billion
* 2023 Deficit: $16.5 billion
* 2024 Deficit: $4.9 billion
As a result, debt will soar,
* 2020 Debt: $88.9 billion (30.2 per cent of GDP)
* 2021 Debt: $129.5 billion (44 per cent of GDP)
* 2022 Debt: $163.6 billion (49.8 per cent of GDP)
* 2023 Debt: $188.7 billion (53.6 per cent of GDP)
* 2024 Debt: $200.8 billion (53.6 per cent of GDP)
Unemployment - projected to peak at 9.8 per cent in September 2020 - isn't forecast to return to pre-coronavirus levels through the forward estimates period.
* 2020 Unemployment rate: 8.3 per cent
* 2021 Unemployment rate: 6.3 per cent
* 2022 Unemployment rate: 4.2 per cent
* 2023 Unemployment rate: 4.3 per cent
* 2024 Unemployment rate: 4.4 per cent
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