Podcast: Recovery from the pandemic By Michael Knox 08 July 2020, 3:50 PM The Australian and US economies will recover rapidly, but the US equities market has moved too far ahead. Read more...
Questions to the RBA By Michael Knox 01 July 2020, 2:50 PM I prepared four questions for the RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle, at an event hosted by the Economic Society of Australia (QLD) and Morgans on 30 June 2020. The Governor's answers surprised me. Read more...
Why is Australian dollar so strong? By Michael Knox 25 June 2020, 10:02 AM I discuss the aggressive rate cuts by the Fed which led the US dollar to fall and the Australian dollar to rise. Read more...
Whatever we can and as long as it takes By Michael Knox 18 June 2020, 1:30 PM The road ahead for the Fed Read more...
Podcast: A third quarter correction in the S&P 500? By Michael Knox 11 June 2020, 11:30 AM The US equities market has already run to a level in excess of that justified by the stimulus of the Federal Reserve. We think it highly likely that forecasts of US earnings for the second quarter of 2020 will dramatically disappoint. The S&P500 is increasingly vulnerable to a correction. Read more...
Why the Fed and the RBA won't follow Europe into negative interest rates By Michael Knox 04 June 2020, 6:50 PM Fed research shows that negative interest rates damage the ability of the banking system to provide liquidity in times of crisis. They also damage the return on assets of banks even in normal times. Read more...
Podcast: Chinese industry recovers By Michael Knox 26 May 2020, 12:15 PM Chinese crude steel production is up 0.2% over a year ago. The output of steel products is up by 3.6%. Read more...
The Congressional Budget Office and the crisis By Michael Knox 21 May 2020, 12:20 PM Rapid recovery begins in the US in Q3 2020. Read more...
Podcast: Turning points in the US economy By Michael Knox 14 May 2020, 9:45 AM I detail how a horrific fall in US GDP in the second quarter of 2020 will be followed by stability and a little growth in the third quarter. Growth then rapidly accelerates as we move into 2021. Read more...
The S&P 500: A cautionary tale By Michael Knox 07 May 2020, 8:50 AM Much weaker second quarter earnings will be a shock when announced in the third quarter. Read more...