Podcast: Initial response to the attack on Saudi oil refineries By Michael Knox 16 September 2019, 11:25 AM The distance between Yemen and eastern Saudi Arabia suggests that an attack by Yemeni rebels is implausible. Read more...
Podcast: The new Trump/China tarrifs By Michael Knox 28 August 2019, 2:30 PM We look at how further Trump tariffs affect the US and Chinese economies. We also look at US and Australian equities. Read more...
Podcast: Trump and the Fed By Michael Knox 21 August 2019, 2:29 PM Trump has two reasons for saying the Fed should cut rates Read more...
Podcast: The US yield curve and the US recession By Michael Knox 16 August 2019, 4:05 PM The inversion of the US yield curve, is suggesting a soft landing for the US economy in 2021. Read more...
Podcast: The outlook for the USA, euro area, Japan and Australia By Michael Knox 14 August 2019, 1:45 PM In 2019 and 2020, Australia will still grow twice as fast as the euro area, twice as fast as Japan and faster than the USA. Read more...
Equity Strategy: Trump tariffs China By Michael Knox 06 August 2019, 4:38 PM In recent days, world capital markets have been convulsed. It is widely said that this is the result of the aggressive trade negotiation that US President Donald Trump is having with China. In this piece, what I want to look at is first the effects of Trump's tariff proposals relative to the size of US GDP. I then want to look at the position of US financial markets, relative to their underlying fundamentals. Read more...
Podcast: The Fed adopts an easing bias By Michael Knox 12 July 2019, 1:42 PM The data has changed since May, they say... Read more...
Podcast: Too early for the Fed to cut By Michael Knox 11 July 2019, 10:56 AM The Fed needs to slow the economy to a long term sustainable growth rate, before it can cut rates. Read more...
Podcast: How many more cuts for the RBA? By Michael Knox 05 July 2019, 12:19 PM The RBA still needs two more rate cuts in order to support household consumption and lift inflation towards the RBA target. Read more...
Podcast: OK, the US economy is slowing but will the Fed cut? By Michael Knox 28 June 2019, 11:33 AM We think the Fed will leave rates unchanged. Read more...