An American Welfare State

By Michael Knox

16 March 2021, 1:50 PM

The Covid-19 rescue bill contains sweeping reforms to the US social safety net. The problem is how they pay for it.

Why bond yields must go up

By Michael Knox

03 March 2021, 4:00 PM

Increasing real demand for credit means that real bond yields must rise as investment rises.

US$1.9 trillion spending bill fuels the commodity boom for the year ahead

By Michael Knox

24 February 2021, 2:30 PM

The US deficit (almost the largest since WW2) will drive a boom in international trade in 2021 and 2022.

The two biggest US budget deficits since WW2

By Michael Knox

17 February 2021, 2:05 PM

The US budget deficits of 2020 and 2021 drive the US dollar down and commodity prices up.

The Fed – Allowing the economy to run hot

By Michael Knox

10 February 2021, 11:40 AM

The Fed now intends to run inflation above 2% for some time. But what does this mean for the bond market in two to three years' time?

Why is the oil price rising?

By Michael Knox

04 February 2021, 8:30 AM

Why is the decline of US feedstock oil allowing a rise in oil prices? Morgans Chief Economist, Michael Knox, shares his insights with the Morgans network.

The Australian V-shape recovery continues

By Michael Knox

27 January 2021, 2:12 PM

We estimate the Australian GDP grew by 2.7% in Q4 2020. Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist discusses how the Australian economy is recovering, following the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

The Australian “V” shaped recovery

By Michael Knox

19 January 2021, 9:00 AM

Movement in hours worked during 2020 shows that a rapid fall in output was followed by an equally rapid “V” shaped recovery. Surprising strength in hours worked in the second half of 2020 suggests surprising strength in GDP.

Five questions on the Australian economy

By Michael Knox

18 January 2021, 2:26 PM

In this issue, I would like to talk about five questions that give us an updated view of where we think the Australian economy is going.

The RBA can limit the rise of the Australian dollar but not prevent it

By Michael Knox

31 December 2020, 11:30 AM

The RBA will need to keep quantitative easing in place for at least three years and probably four.

Morgans Chief Economist, Michael Knox, shares his thoughts on the future of Australian economic policy with the Morgans network.