Camplify Holdings: Bookings growth highlights broader momentum
About the author:
- Author name:
- By Steven Sassine
- Job title:
- Associate Analyst
- Date posted:
- 09 June 2022, 8:00 AM
- Sectors Covered:
- Diversified Financials
- Camplify Holdings (ASX:CHL) released a trading update for the FYTD (period up until May-22).
- It was a positive update, in our view, that highlighted the robust growth the platform has seen coming out of the recent COVID-impacted operating environment. GTV for the period was up ~72% on pcp to A$49m, with revenue of ~A$14m (+112% on pcp) implying a ~29% take rate. Future bookings GTV appears strong at ~A$14.8m (broadly double that in the pcp).
- Offshore momentum appears to be building with bookings growth of 57% in NZ (international tourists returning) and 96% in UK.
- We lower our FY22F/FY23F/FY24F topline estimates by ~4-10% factoring in the trading update and some additional conservatism over our forecast period. Our price target is lowered to (login to view) on the above changes and a lowering of relative valuation multiples post the ongoing sector and peer de-rate. Add maintained.
Trading update highlights growing bookings momentum
Camplify released a trading update for the FYTD period up until May-22. In our view, it was a positive update from CHL that highlighted the platform’s robust growth coming out of the recent COVID and weather-impacted operating environment.
Indeed, CHL’s total bookings exceeded 36k in the period (+~30% on pcp), with an average booking value of ~A$1,200. The platform added ~130k new customers (both organic and via the Mighway/ShareAcamper acquisition) and RVs now total over 10.1k.
Digging into the details
FYTD, CHL saw a ~72% GTV increase on pcp to ~A$49m (MorgansE FY22F ~A$55m). By region, Australia had +68% GTV growth, NZ +54%, UK+142%, while Spain saw substantial growth off a low base. On NZ specifically, CHL noted it has seen increased activity with international tourists now returning (bookings +57% on pcp) accompanied with increased days booked and booking values.
With over 36k bookings in the period across all regions, CHL increased its average booking value by 22% on pcp to ~A$1,200.
Revenue for the period was up 112% on pcp to A$14.2m, implying a ~29% take rate, broadly in line with the 3Q22 take rate (ex van sales).
Currently, future bookings value on the platform totals ~A$14.8m (vs A$7.6m in the pcp). The repeat rate (i.e. retained hirers) has trended up in the period to 25% (vs 20% at FY21) as CHL implemented initiatives to drive up that repeat rate (e.g. data analytics, targeted email campaigns as well as the release of the Hirer app).
Forecast and valuation update
We lower our FY22F-FY24F topline estimates by 4-10% factoring in today’s trading update as well as some additional conservatism over our forecast period.
Our valuation is derived from an equally weighted blend of a DCF and relative valuation methodologies.
Our price target is reduced to (login to view) on the above changes and a lowering of multiples post the ongoing sector/peer de-rate. Trading on ~0.7x FY23F EV/GTV and ~2.4x FY23F EV/Rev (MorgansE), we see these above peer multiples as justified given CHL’s solid growth pathway both domestically and offshore.
CHL’s management team has shown an ability to build out a successful scalable platform, in our view.
Whilst still in its infancy and not without risk, we believe structural tailwinds supporting CHL and the prodigious opportunity offshore should provide longer term growth potential for patient investors.
Broadly, the two biggest risks faced by CHL are business disruptions (e.g. bush fires, floods, etc) and those risks associated with being a dominant digital marketplace (e.g. platform risk and competition impacting margins).
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Disclaimer: The information contained in this report is provided to you by Morgans Financial Limited as general advice only, and is made without consideration of an individual's relevant personal circumstances. Morgans Financial Limited ABN 49 010 669 726, its related bodies corporate, directors and officers, employees, authorised representatives and agents (“Morgans”) do not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising from or in connection with any action taken or not taken on the basis of information contained in this report, or for any errors or omissions contained within. It is recommended that any persons who wish to act upon this report consult with their Morgans investment adviser before doing so.