Melbourne Cup Strategy 2019

About the author:

Michael Knox
Author name:
By Michael Knox
Job title:
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
Date posted:
05 November 2019, 9:45 AM

Economists generally have enough sense to know that they know nothing about horse races. There are people who do. They are called tipsters.

Every Melbourne Cup Day, their tips are published in major newspapers. Today we have taken the tips published in The Australian newspaper. There are nine tipsters in all.

From these tipsters we construct our most favoured rating.

Every horse nominated to win gets 3 points. Every horse nominated to come in second gets 2 points. Horses nominated to come in third get 1 point.

Today the total points provided are:

  • Finche, 20 points
  • Vow & Declare, 7 points
  • Cross Counter, 5 points
  • Mustajeer, 5 points
  • Mer De Glace, 4 points
  • Prince of Arran, 4 points
  • Constantinople, 3 points
  • Southern France, 3 points
  • Il Paradiso, 2 points
  • Magic Wand, 1 point

In order to generate the value for each horse, we multiply these points by the odds. The odds in the electronic market at 7.00am this morning for these horses were Finche $8, Constantinople $9, Mer De Glace $9.50, Vow & Declare $12, Il Paradiso $13, Cross Counter $15, Prince of Arran $19 and Magic Wand $19.

When we multiply the odds by the most favoured rating, the results yield:

  • Finche, 160 points
  • Mustajeer, 85 points
  • Vow & Declare, 84 points
  • Prince of Arran, 76 points
  • Cross Counter, 75 points
  • Southern France, 63 points
  • Constantinople, 27 points
  • Il Paradiso, 26 points
  • Magic Wand, 19 points

Best value bet

Our recommendation this year is for an each-way bet on Finche. Remember our recommendation is for the best value bet rather than for the highest probability of winning.   

More information

View more analysis from Michael Knox by clicking on 'economic strategy' in the popular topics list, or listen to his full playlist of podcasts on Soundcloud. Alternatively, contact your Morgans adviser or nearest Morgans branch.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this report is provided to you by Morgans Financial Limited as general advice only, and is made without consideration of an individual's relevant personal circumstances. Morgans Financial Limited ABN 49 010 669 726, its related bodies corporate, directors and officers, employees, authorised representatives and agents ("Morgans") do not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising from or in connection with any action taken or not taken on the basis of information contained in this report, or for any errors or omissions contained within. It is recommended that any persons who wish to act upon this report consult with their Morgans investment adviser before doing so.

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