Melbourne Cup Strategy 2019
About the author:
- Author name:
- By Michael Knox
- Job title:
- Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
- Date posted:
- 05 November 2019, 9:45 AM
Economists generally have enough sense to know that they know nothing about horse races. There are people who do. They are called tipsters.
Every Melbourne Cup Day, their tips are published in major newspapers. Today we have taken the tips published in The Australian newspaper. There are nine tipsters in all.
From these tipsters we construct our most favoured rating.
Every horse nominated to win gets 3 points. Every horse nominated to come in second gets 2 points. Horses nominated to come in third get 1 point.
Today the total points provided are:
- Finche, 20 points
- Vow & Declare, 7 points
- Cross Counter, 5 points
- Mustajeer, 5 points
- Mer De Glace, 4 points
- Prince of Arran, 4 points
- Constantinople, 3 points
- Southern France, 3 points
- Il Paradiso, 2 points
- Magic Wand, 1 point
In order to generate the value for each horse, we multiply these points by the odds. The odds in the electronic market at 7.00am this morning for these horses were Finche $8, Constantinople $9, Mer De Glace $9.50, Vow & Declare $12, Il Paradiso $13, Cross Counter $15, Prince of Arran $19 and Magic Wand $19.
When we multiply the odds by the most favoured rating, the results yield:
- Finche, 160 points
- Mustajeer, 85 points
- Vow & Declare, 84 points
- Prince of Arran, 76 points
- Cross Counter, 75 points
- Southern France, 63 points
- Constantinople, 27 points
- Il Paradiso, 26 points
- Magic Wand, 19 points
Best value bet
Our recommendation this year is for an each-way bet on Finche. Remember our recommendation is for the best value bet rather than for the highest probability of winning.
More information
View more analysis from Michael Knox by clicking on 'economic strategy' in the popular topics list, or listen to his full playlist of podcasts on Soundcloud. Alternatively, contact your Morgans adviser or nearest Morgans branch.
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