Politicians have told us that Australian dwellings are becoming increasingly unaffordable. The question is, is everything politicians tell us in fact true?
We thought we would look at housing industry data on the price of dwellings in five Australian cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide). We decided that our measure of affordability should be the median dwelling price divided by average annual earnings.
In the chart below, we see the ratio of the price of dwellings in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide divided by the average annual earnings in each state:
What has happened this decade in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide?
Let us take as a benchmark the last quarter of the last decade:
- Brisbane – dwellings have moved from 6.1 times average annual earnings (in the last quarter of 2009) to 5.9 times average annual earnings (in the last quarter of 2016).
- Perth – dwellings have moved from 6.2 times average annual earnings in 2009 to 4.9 times average annual earnings in 2016.
- Adelaide – dwellings have moved from 5.9 times average annual earnings in 2009 to 5.4 times average annual earnings in 2016.
In Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide the price of dwellings has declined this decade relative to annual earnings. There is no affordability crisis here. What we think is happening though is a substitution effect. The big production of housing units has meant that more people are moving from houses to apartments over the course of this decade. This is keeping average dwelling prices lower relative to the level of earnings.
Nevertheless, we say there is no worsening in affordability.
The (un)affordability of Sydney dwellings is legendary, so let us see what the data tells us. Again, we are looking at the ratio of average dwelling prices divided by average annual earnings.
Sydney dwellings were 7.1 times average annual earnings in the December quarter of 2009. In the December quarter of 2016, Sydney dwellings were 9.4 times average annual earnings. Sydney affordability (or lack of it) is living up to its legend.
Why is the price rise so dramatic in Sydney?
Philip Lowe, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, speaking in Melbourne in March, said that he thought the problem was a lack of supply. Under-investment in transport infrastructure in Sydney had generated a shortage of land for development. The best cure for this was investment in transport infrastructure which would make Sydney land available. We have separately described in our Budget piece a number of Federal government programs which have the objective of increasing investment in transport infrastructure with emphasis in the Sydney area.
Melbourne dwellings have become more unaffordable over the period. We note that investment in transport infrastructure in the Melbourne area has been greater than the level of transport infrastructure investment in the Sydney area. This would appear to have made more land available for development in the Melbourne area, and has served to improve affordability in Melbourne relative to Sydney.
Housing affordability in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide is stable this decade. Affordability has worsened moderately in Melbourne. Affordability has worsened remarkably in Sydney. Housing (un)affordability appears to be a Sydney event rather than a national event.
Up until 2013, affordability in Sydney had actually improved. Since that time there has been a sharp increase in dwelling prices relative to average annual earnings. We understand that under-investment in transport infrastructure in the Sydney area has contributed to this unaffordability.
Melbourne has seen greater investment in transport infrastructure than Sydney, and this has served to improve affordability in Melbourne relative to Sydney.
The Federal budget contained a number of programs aimed at improving investment in transport infrastructure in the Sydney region. These programs, if implemented, should increase supply which should in turn improve housing affordability in the Sydney region.
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