Sandfire Resources

About the author:

Tom Sartor
Author name:
By Tom Sartor
Job title:
Senior Analyst
Date posted:
28 October 2016, 1:22 PM
Sectors Covered:
Junior (Emerging) Resources, Bulk Materials

1Q production in line with budget

Investors have become accustomed to consistent operating performance from Sandfire Resources (SFR) and the 1Q was no exception. Lower copper output (15.6kt) was consistent with SFR's mine plan/stoping sequence requiring no change to FY17 guidance. This pushed C1 costs slightly above guidance (US$0.95-$1.05) at US$1.06. SFR flags copper output of around 18kt in Q2 and Q3 driven by higher grade stopes, which should see C1 costs fall toward the bottom end, or possibly below guidance. We have made no changes to our physical forecasts.

Changes to forecasts

Commodity price and currency movements slightly worse than our forecasts have driven slight downward revisions to our earnings and DCF based valuation. Applying current prices into perpetuity, our spot valuation of SFR is A$3.81ps, implying 25% downside. Clearly buyers of SFR at current share price levels (~A$5.00) must agree with our forecasts for upside in copper and gold closer to long term prices of US$3.25/lb and US$1400 per ounce respectively.

Investment view

Sandfire Resources (SFR) enjoys robust cash generation from a stable production base. Stable production, diminishing debt servicing and underground development obligations will enable SFR to accumulate a net cash buffer, sustain a modest dividend, pre-develop Monty and aggressively pursue regional exploration opportunities in FY17. Significant near-mine exploration potential offers strong potential to further extend the project life at Degrussa and is SFR's differentiator. This is a key attraction which would improve both SFR's growth and capital management options upon further exploratory success.

Recent share price weakness has seen the share price move below our revised valuation. We note that possible US dollar volatility (pending US rates decision) is a potential headwind, but we're happy to buy now and or/through market volatility. We upgrade our recommendation to Add

More information

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Disclaimer: The information contained in this report is provided to you by Morgans Financial Limited as general advice only, and is made without consideration of an individual's relevant personal circumstances. Morgans Financial Limited ABN 49 010 669 726, its related bodies corporate, directors and officers, employees, authorised representatives and agents (“Morgans”) do not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising from or in connection with any action taken or not taken on the basis of information contained in this report, or for any errors or omissions contained within. It is recommended that any persons who wish to act upon this report consult with their Morgans investment adviser before doing so.

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